The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) is confirming a significant strengthening in the tone of UK grain prices for the week ending Friday, July 17.

The November futures’ market strengthened by £10.25/t to reach a value of £196.25/t.

This was the highest price for a nearby contract for almost two years.

As AHDB is also reporting, last week’s contract-related developments moved above all recent resistance levels last week.

The next key resistance level is likely to be the psychological threshold of £200/t.

Grain futures

Grain futures rose sharply last week as the conflict in the Black Sea escalated further, while concerns persist about European crops.

Buying by speculative traders was also a factor, according to AHDB.

Russian exports from the Sea of Azov, which represent up to 25% of the country’s total exports, remain curtailed by Ukrainian strikes.

Meanwhile, exports are also reduced from key Ukrainian ports after renewed Russian airstrikes.

Ukrainian farmers’ union UAC estimates the closures affect around a third of Ukraine’s grain export capacity.

While early harvest results from Russia and Ukraine look positive, the risks around access to this grain are rising. Strikes against shipping continued over the weekend.

Wheat harvest

As the French wheat harvest nears completion, estimates forecast the crop, excluding Durum varieties, to come in at at 30.8Mt.

This is down 8% from 2025 and 6% below the five-year average due to the hot weather.

With the German wheat harvest getting underway, the farm co-ops’ association DRV cut its forecast by 0.7Mt to 21.9Mt.

This would be 5% smaller than in 2025/26. DRV also predicts a 5% year-on-year fall in barley production and a 10% fall for oats.

Maize

The hot weather also continued to impact maize crops in their critical “silking” stage in Hungary and western Europe.

It has been estimated that in France just 41% of maize is now in good or very good condition.

However, Chicago maize futures (Dec-26) rose less than wheat futures.

This was due to higher estimates of the 2025/2026 Brazilian maize crop, plus forecasts for cooler, wetter weather in key US maize areas this week.

Due to the heatwaves in Europe, the International Grains Council (IGC) cut over 4Mt from its 2026/2027 global maize crop forecast made in June.

At 1,306Mt, the maize crop would now be 37Mt below last year and 17Mt below demand.

The IGC also reduced its forecast of the EU wheat crop from June by 1.8Mt.

But increases elsewhere, mainly for Argentina and Russia, kept the global total at 821Mt. 

Meanwhile, the conflict in the Black Sea is likely to remain the key driver of grain prices in the coming week.